For the last 20 months, the narrative around high school seniors’ FAFSA completion trends has been a negative one. Week after week and month after month the classes of 2020 and 2021 have either been on the decline or trailing pre-COVID comparisons. The
classes of 2020 and 2021 combined lost more than a quarter million completed FAFSAs compared to the class of 2019, and students from low-income backgrounds and students of color saw disproportionately large decreases.
It’s unclear if the high school class of 2022 is going to reverse this depressing trend, but it’s giving our field and the country more encouragement than either has had recently.
Through Nov. 12, the class of 2022 nationally has completed 3% (about 23,000) fewer FAFSAs than the class of 2021 had through the same date. As recently as Nov. 5, the class of 2022 was within 1.2% of its predecessors, and that figure came after five
straight weeks of closing a gap that started at -29% way back on Oct. 8. These data, and the figures below, come from NCAN’s Form Your Future FAFSA Tracker.
By percent of seniors completing a FAFSA, the class of 2022 trails the class of 2021 by 0.6 percentage points (19.3% vs. 18.7%). Both classes significantly trail the class of 2020 (approximately 24% through this point in the cycle), which we consider
to be "pre-COVID" until approximately mid-March.
There are encouraging signs for the class of 2022 through Nov. 12:
Fifteen states are even with or ahead of where they were at this point last year. Last cycle, just three states finished ahead of where they were the year before.
Public high schools with 50% or more of their students receiving free- or reduced-price lunch have year-over-year FAFSA declines of -2.4% compared to -3.4% for schools with less than 50% students on free- or reduced-price lunch, which suggests that
this cycle may see a bounce back for students from low-income backgrounds.
Rural public high schools are ahead of where they were last year by 0.3%, but they were previously up 2.4%. A return to in-person instruction and the access to broadband afforded by being in school might be driving this trend.
There are good examples of states performing particularly well so far. West Virginia (+19.9%), Texas (+14.7%), Louisiana (+13.0%), Mississippi (+12.6%), and Alabama (+9.0%) round out the top five by year-over-year change. Texas is notable because it is
in its first year of FAFSA completion as a graduation requirement. By percent of seniors completing, Illinois, which has a limited pot of state grant aid to distribute, is way out in front at
greater than 31% of its seniors having completed a FAFSA already.
Despite these positive signposts, success this cycle isn’t assured.
The class of 2021 is the year-over-year comparison, and that class dropped 4.8% by June 30 compared to the class of 2020, a loss of more than 100,000 seniors. With many districts and schools operating in person, it’s reasonable to expect a stronger bounce
back than we’ve seen as students get reconnected with school counselors and college advising programs. If the class of 2022 continues its largely upward trend, that’s good news, but there’s no guarantee that occurs. In terms of precedent, we are flying
a little bit blind around what to expect here.
Even if the class of 2022 does catch and surpass the class of 2021, there is a massive amount of ground to cover to catch up to the class of 2020. The class of 2022 currently has 21.7% fewer FAFSAs completed than the class of 2020 did through about the
same date. That’s not a typo. My fingers didn’t slip. The class of 2022 has more than a fifth fewer FAFSAs than were completed two years ago. Of course, once we get to mid-March, the gap will partially close because of the freefall the class of 2020 went into that
spring.
The improvements we are seeing in FAFSA completion aren’t happening (and won’t happen) by osmosis. NCAN members, the partners they work with across the country, and the families and students they are collectively serving are working hard to get the form
complete and get back on track for postsecondary pathways. It’s unclear where the cycle will go from here, but NCAN will be here to document and update as needed and warranted.
Email to a Friend
