The postsecondary advising provided to students (and their families) by school counselors, college access advisers, and other programs and trusting adults should bring institutional completion rates to the forefront and guide students to the destinations
most likely to see them attain a degree or credential. This research shows doing so can provide a substantial boost.
Across the more than 71,000 students in the sample who enrolled in college following high school graduation, the average 150% graduation rate for students’ first institutions was just 37.1%.
81.3% of students in the sample had another postsecondary institution within 50 miles of their high school that had a higher postsecondary completion rate than where the student actually matriculated.
The average student from a lowest-income high school in the sample had a nearby postsecondary alternative with a projected completion rate nearly 37 percentage points higher than where the student actually first attended.
This difference between where a student could have attended and where they actually did is what Vela dubs the “lift difference,” which is the report’s namesake.
Communities and broad locales (i.e., urban, suburban, and rural) have dissimilar access and proximity to postsecondary institutions. Generally, urban locales tend to have more institutional options than rural locales owing to disparities in population
density. Suburban locales are more varied in terms of population density, and so their access to postsecondary institutions will also vary. Where a student lives, then, will affect their local postsecondary options.
Vela also calculated the lift difference above for different high school locales:
Urban high schools had an average lift difference of 40 percentage points, and suburban high schools’ lift difference averaged 32.9 percentage points. These values reflect the likelihood of more postsecondary options from which to choose.
Students in rural high schools still had an average lift difference of 18.1 percentage points. Even in areas where we would expect fewer postsecondary options, the average rural high school student still had an accessible alternative with a higher
projected postsecondary completion rate.
Readers can explore the variation in completion rates through an interactive dashboard from the Vela Institute.
There is considerable variation in completion rates among and within postsecondary institutions. The report uses IPEDS data to show variation in the aggregate, across sectors and institution types, and across demographic groups.
It’s important to use the data, in this case from IPEDS but ideally from the National Student Clearinghouse, to drive postsecondary advising.
3 Key Takeaways for College Access Practitioners
The report identifies three implications for practice:
Get Your Data; Know Your Data
The National Student Clearinghouse’s StudentTracker service is both widely available and relatively affordable ($595 per high school per year at the time of
this writing). Despite this, too few districts and schools are subscribing to the service and accessing the postsecondary outcomes data of up to eight graduating classes of high school students.
Districts and schools should be accessing this data to understand what happens to their students after high school graduation. Those postsecondary outcomes are important for understanding how well students are being prepared to take their next steps following
high school graduation. Data from the NSC can make those efforts much easier.
Even if districts and schools only make use of the preconstructed charts and never dive into the granular-detail data, they will still be getting access to valuable insights that are not easily accessible through other means.
Map the Postsecondary Pipeline
As described above, students’ matriculation patterns tend to be place-based and proximate to their high school. That pattern emphasizes the importance of districts and schools knowing how students fare when they matriculate. Using data to understand the
percentages of students heading to a given set of institutions and then understanding how the students do when they get there is critical. It also starts new conversations.
For example, a district sending 40% of its students to an institution delivering a 30% second-year persistence rate should be asking why students are stumbling and what can be done to connect them with supports, better prepare them before arriving on
campus, or both. Districts with better alternative destinations for their students can be changing the postsecondary advising conversation with students and parents. If meaningful progress cannot be made with an institution regarding students’ outcomes,
districts and schools should consider advising toward alternative pathways that would offer a higher likelihood of completion.
Put Completion at the Forefront for Students
Students make college-going decisions based on all kinds of factors: cost and affordability, location, academic programs, family advice, institutional reputation, where their friends are going, campus atmosphere and amenities, and even the institutions’
sports teams. These factors and more combine to comprise the concept of “fit” in fit and match.
But our experience is that too few students are putting the likelihood of completion toward or at the top of their list of deciding factors. Tools like the College Scorecard allow students
to look up completion rates for institutions, and this brief’s analysis emphasizes the importance of considering completion in this critical decision.
This project has its roots in a simple assertion with profound implications for practice: The advising high schools provide can change students’ postsecondary pathways and increase their likelihood of postsecondary completion. Students have options, and
it is within the power of schools and districts to connect students to their best option following high school graduation. The data in this analysis support this idea.
NCAN members can view a webinar recording with the report’s authors via NCAN’s webinar archives. The slides from that presentation are available here.
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