By Bill DeBaun, Senior Director, Data and Strategic Initiatives
Reading time: Four minutes
From April 19 to May 10, 2024, the national Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion rate posted weekly gains over 2%, but following three weeks where the rate gained just 1% on average, the trajectory for the class of 2024 is looking extremely worrisome once again.
Through May 31, an estimated 43.3% of high school seniors have completed a FAFSA, compared to about 51.2% through the same date for the class of 2023. The number of FAFSAs completed by seniors is down about 13.5% year-over-year (about
280,000 FAFSAs).
The year-over-year percent change trendline looks increasingly serpentine, with recent weeks forming the snake’s head as completion momentum slows. Approaching June 30, a date the National College Attainment Network (NCAN) has always considered as one
past which many students will not have ready access to FAFSA completion supports, we should collectively be very worried about potential declines to postsecondary enrollment this fall.
With high school graduations upon us and state priority deadlines all passed, it will take another external factor to inject energy into this FAFSA completion cycle. NCAN's #DoTheFAFSA campaign and ECMC’s FAFSA Student Support Strategy will hopefully be that boost. A number of NCAN members have already received their funding under the latter initiative and are putting programming
into place to conduct outreach to students and families and appropriately staff support channels.
“It is difficult to make predictions,” the legendary baseball player Yogi Berra once quipped. “Especially about the future.” That’s true about FAFSA completion, too. Back of the envelope projections based on average weekly gains to the national FAFSA
completion rate show a decline of two to more than seven percentage points by June 30, which would translate to a year-over-year percent change of 4-14%. The chart below shows that even the most optimistic projection over the next four weeks would
still fall short of the class of 2023’s 53.4% June 30 FAFSA completion rate.
The chart below shows the national FAFSA completion rate for the high school classes of 2017-2024. Note that the black line is the heavily COVID-19-impacted class of 2021; under all but the most optimistic scenario above, the class of 2024 is on-pace
to complete a smaller percentage of FAFSAs by June 30.
Although the FAFSA Tracker does not have access to student-level FAFSA completion data, we can proxy students’ characteristics with those of the schools in which they’re enrolled. Low-income high schools, where half or more of students are eligible for
free- or reduced-price lunch, have an estimated FAFSA completion rate of 42% and a year-over-year decline of -15.6%; higher-income high schools, by contrast, have an estimated completion rate of 47.5% and a smaller decline of -12.6%. Similar trends
and disparities exist between high schools enrolling greater or less than 40% Black and Latino/a students.
Looking at states, Indiana is leading the way in terms of year-over-year progress. The state is implementing its universal FAFSA policy this academic year and has a year-over-year percent change of
just -1.6%, by far the smallest decline of any states. The state also ranks 17th by percent of seniors completing a FAFSA, up from 39th through September of last year. New Hampshire is also implementing universal FAFSA this year
and has the sixth smallest percent change (-11.2%) and has also zoomed up the percent of seniors completing ranking. After finishing 29th last September, the state now sits 16th.
The leaderboard for states by percentage of seniors completing will be familiar to anyone who has followed this trend in previous cycles. Tennessee (57.1%), Louisiana (54.4%), Illinois (53.8%), Washington, DC (52.8%), and Texas (52.1%) make up the top
five states. Tennessee and Louisiana, in one order or another, have been the top two states for FAFSA completion for at least the past six years.
This analysis focuses on high school seniors because that’s where we have readily-available data. Federal Student Aid has not yet released data on FAFSA renewals for the 2024-25 award year, so it’s hard to get a sense of how already-enrolled students
are faring with an outcome their first-time counterparts have struggled with nationwide. Should that data become available, NCAN will surely visualize it, also at the NCAN FAFSA Tracker.
NCAN will continue to monitor, and report on, the class of 2024’s FAFSA completion outcomes, with updates every Friday. We are looking on with increasing worry at the slowdown in FAFSA completion momentum while also applauding the significant efforts
of NCAN members and partners across the country who are giving it all they’ve got to connect students with the encouragement and assistance they need to access financial aid and keep a postsecondary matriculation on the table for this fall.
Have questions, comments, or concerns about NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker? Please reach out to me at debaunb@ncan.org.
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