By Bill DeBaun, Senior Director, Data and Strategic Initiatives
Reading time: Two minutes
Today, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) announced a methodological error in its Fall 2024 semester "Stay Informed Report and Special Analysis of 18-Year-old Freshmen Report." Data from these reports showed declines in 18-year-old
freshman postsecondary enrollment in the fall 2024 semester, but the NSCRC now notes that, “subsequent research finds freshmen enrollment increased this fall.”
In short, the NSCRC’s methodological error, “caused mislabeling of certain students as dual-enrolled rather than as freshmen, and as a result, the number of freshmen were undercounted and the number of dual-enrolled were overcounted.”
Previous reporting aside, the finding that freshman enrollment increased is great news for students and the United States overall. These enrollment increases build on the momentum nationally across the country coming out of the pandemic.
The finding that freshman enrollment increased in the Fall 2024 semester is surprising. The connection between Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion and postsecondary enrollment is long-established, so these findings run counter
to our prior understanding.As of June 30 last year, FAFSA completions for high school seniors in the class of 2024 were down an estimated 11.6% year-over-year. This is the first time since the National College Attainment Network (NCAN)
began tracking national FAFSA and enrollment figures that FAFSA completion and postsecondary enrollment outcomes for high school graduates moved in different directions.
The NSCRC will release its Current Term Enrollment Estimates report on January 23 with updated fall 2024 freshman enrollment statistics. This report includes data from nearly all institutions of higher education and uses different methodology to determine
freshmen enrollees.
NCAN published and commented extensively on the fall 2024 semester Stay Informed and special analysis reports upon their release. The NSCRC has long been a valued partner and authoritative source of information on students’ postsecondary outcomes. That
said: the NSCRC erred on these reports. It was not a small error, given the stakes of the topic and the resulting national coverage. NCAN regrets the misunderstanding created by the incorrect data. We relied on a trusted partner and appreciate NSCRC’s
transparency in sharing the discovery of the error and correcting the data moving forward.
NCAN has appended a message about the identified methodological error to our previous blog posts related to these NSCRC reports. We eagerly await the opportunity to cover the new release on January 23, to better understand students’ matriculation patterns,
and to put these new findings in context for NCAN members and the field.
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