Though it may seem odd to talk about melting in February, the time is now to start planning for how your program can work to minimize summer melt among students come June, July, and August.
"Summer melt" is a phrase used to describe the phenomenon of college-intending high school graduates failing to matriculate come the fall. Causes of summer melt include unexpected life circumstances, insufficient support while navigating complex forms and
processes, financial aid gaps, lack of access to information about college, and more. Research indicates that students from disadvantaged backgrounds are the most susceptible.
In a recent report, NCAN member Iowa College Aid investigated some of the factors associated with summer melt among Iowa public high school graduates (class
of 2017 through class of 2019) and proposed a few solutions.
In short, college-going rates in Iowa have slowly declined from 64% in 2017 to 62% in 2019, according to the report. Moreover, approximately 20% of Iowa students who intended to immediately enroll in a postsecondary institution did not.
According to the report, prior researches have hypothesized that "summer melt occurs because students lack support from both their high school counselors and their destination postsecondary institutions,” Additionally, the challenges students endure with
the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) and the verification process have also been linked to higher likelihoods of summer melt.
The Iowa College Aid report demonstrates similar findings. Roughly 2 out of 3 Iowa public high school graduates who intended to enroll in a postsecondary institution completed both the FAFSA and a standardized admissions test (either the ACT or SAT).
Considering how critical these steps are for the college application process, one would expect higher completion rates among students with postsecondary intentions.
Furthermore, nearly half of all Iowa students who "melted" (i.e., intended to enroll in a postsecondary institution but did not) had not completed FAFSA nor had they taken the SAT or ACT. Students of color, students from low-income backgrounds,
and English language learners were overrepresented among this group.
Utilizing probability models, Iowa College Aid estimated the association between specific variables and summer melt. The first model, in which FAFSA and SAT/ACT completion are the only variables, illustrates that FAFSA completion decreases the risk of
summer melt by 37%; standardized test completion reduces the risk of summer melt by 26%. When complexified to include variables such as race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, gender, academic profile, and more, the model still indicates that FAFSA
completion significantly reduces the risk of melt by 36% and SAT/ACT completion reduces risk by 19%.
Iowa College Aid released a research brief by @meghanoster, Statistical Research Analyst, on “summer melt” in Iowa. Here is a short thread about this research & our policy recommendations.
The full brief is here: https://t.co/Nmwym1mrsZ
To help decrease summer melt in the state, one of Iowa College Aid's recommendations is that “the statewide senior exit survey be administered much earlier during senior year or even at the end of junior year.” This would enable school counselors to spend more time
assisting college-intending students with the FAFSA and verification processes and standardized testing completion.
Surveying students earlier in the academic year is a step districts and schools in other states can take too.
According to NCAN’'s "4 for the Fall” report: “Surveys should ask students to share their postsecondary plans, concerns about achieving them, and which key milestones they’ve already completed.
Using these data, counselors and other school staff can triage students into appropriate outreach groups based on their plans and concerns, and provide support throughout the academic year. A follow-up survey in the spring would also be useful to
see where students have progressed from the fall baseline.”
“4 for the Fall” offers additional information on senior exit surveys, including examples of surveys from NCAN member organizations.
Across the country, states may report rates of summer melt from as low as 10% to as high as 40%, according to the Harvard Strategic Data Project. The impact this
has on historically underrepresented students cannot be overstated. K-12 districts and schools, their community-based partners, and other college attainment professionals must take preventative measures to ensure that all high school graduates pursuing
postsecondary education have the support they need to follow through on their plans for the fall semester.
NCAN has closely worked with various school districts nationwide and compiled their recommendations for early intervention strategies. In other words, you do not have to start from square one when planning a summer melt initiative. You can access NCAN's Summer Melt Toolkit here as well as additional resources under the “Summer Melt” category on our K-12 college and career readiness calendar.
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