Through April 30, the high school class of 2021 completed 112,000 fewer FAFSAs than the class of 2020 had through the same date last year. That figure represents a 5.8% decline year-over-year. Through the same date, an estimated 48.5% of the senior class
had completed a FAFSA; each of the three previous cycles was above 50% by this point in the cycle. The data show how much work remains to assist seniors with this key college-going milestone and keep them on track for a postsecondary pathway.
These data come from NCAN’s Form Your Future FAFSA Tracker, which is updated weekly with data at the national, state, city, district, and school levels.
The good news related to the class of 2021 is that the FAFSA completion gap has been narrowing since March 12. On that date, there was an 8.9% year-over-year decrease in completed FAFSAs. The bad news is that narrowing was almost inevitable given that
it was coming against a period in which FAFSA completion was in freefall last year.
The worse news is that the rate at which the gap is narrowing has slowed. In March, the class of 2021 clawed back 0.6% to 0.7% per week, but in April the gains were half that. If April’s trend continues, the class of 2021 will finish with 3.4% fewer completions
than the class of 2020, which in turn had a 3.7% decrease (100,000 fewer FAFSAs) compared to the class of 2019.
FAFSA completion deficits remain inequitably distributed. Title I-eligible public high schools have completed 8.1% fewer FAFSAs this academic year compared to last year; their non-Title I counterparts have seen decreases of 4.1%. Considering high-minority
high schools where Black and Hispanic students comprise at least 40% of enrollment, the FAFSA completion decreases have been much steeper: -9.9%. At high schools with fewer than 40% Black and Hispanic students, decreases are just -2.4% year-over-year.
Some states are doing better than others with the FAFSA. The top five by percentage of the senior class completing features some familiar faces. Tennessee (69.8%) is no stranger to the top slot and leads Louisiana (66.1%) by 3.7 percentage points through
April 30. Washington, D.C. (61.8%), Illinois (61.1%), and New Jersey (59.4%) round out the top five. By percent change, Puerto Rico (+13.5%) is an outlier whose metric is likely bolstered by the still ongoing recovery from Hurricane Maria and low
levels of completion last year. Illinois (+2.8%) leads all states in improvement compared to last year, and Wyoming (+2.0%), North Dakota (0.1%), and South Dakota (0.0%) round out the top five.
On the other end of the spectrum, nine states have senior completion rates lower than 40%, and another nine have double-digit percent decreases in FAFSA completion compared to last year.
This number-crunching around the FAFSA is important because of how critical the FAFSA is as a leading indicator of postsecondary enrollment. Consider that the class of 2020’s aforementioned 3.7% decrease in FAFSA completions compared to the class of 2019
resulted in a 6.8% decrease in postsecondary enrollment last fall. The nation is on pace to see a repeat of the FAFSA completion trend from last year; whether this class will experience the same disastrous postsecondary enrollment result remains to
be seen.
Even with normalcy returning to many communities across the country, college-going is not like a light switch for most students. Students who do not complete a FAFSA now will be less likely to enroll later. That is especially true for students from low-income
backgrounds, students of color, and first-generation students, who even in a normal year often benefit from additional college and career readiness supports.
Districts, schools, and communities focused on improving their FAFSA completion outcomes should consult NCAN’s FAFSA Resource Library for a bevy of great tools and strategies.
NCAN will continue to keep an eye on FAFSA completion through the FAFSA Tracker.
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