Last week, the National Student Clearing House Research Center (NSCRC) released an updated report of the "COVID-19: Stay Informed" series. Since summer 2020, the NSCRC has tracked college enrollment
trends through an interactive dashboard. The organization regularly updates its "Stay Informed" dashboard with new data from each academic term with hopes of shedding light on COVID-19’s impact
on national enrollment and matriculation rates.
Fall enrollment numbers are showing no signs of recovery, according to early data. As of Sept. 23, the NSCRC reports that fall 2021 enrollment numbers are down 3.2% percent from the previous year and 6.5% from two years ago. First-year
student enrollment continued to decline this fall, by 3.1% percent from last year.
Across the board, undergraduate enrollment rates are down in most degree programs and all sectors, excluding "highly selective" private non-profit four-year institutions. Some of the major pain points in this realm include:
There has been a steep decline in associate degree program enrollment (-14.1%) since the beginning of the pandemic.
Bachelor’s degree enrollment rates faced a more significant slide in enrollment this fall (-1.9%) than last year (-0.4%).
Compared to last year’s enrollment falling by 9.0%, public two-year institutions are faring slightly better but still seeing a 5.6% decline.
Public four-year enrollment rates have fallen more this fall than the previous year (by 1.5 percentage points).
From last year, private for-profit enrollment rates suffered the most significant decline in enrollment at -12.7%. However, this data point should be taken with caution, considering lower institutional coverage in this early data.
In terms of enrollment rates by student demographics, the NSCRC is seeing a decline across all racial and ethnic groups as well as gender and age. For example, enrollment fell most drastically for Black, white, and Native American students, falling between
4.1% and 5.1%. At the same time, Latinx and Asian students showed smaller declines at about half the rates of their counterparts.
If we look closer at freshmen enrollment rates by race and ethnicity, we are learning that:
Black and white freshmen enrollment rates experienced the most significant drops (-7.5% and -8.5%, respectively) compared to first-year enrollment rates for Latinx, Asian, and Native American students.
At public two-year colleges, Black freshmen enrollment rates dropped the most in comparison to their counterparts.
Native American, Latinx, and Asian first-year students have increased their enrollment at private non-profit four-year colleges.
The NSCRC also reported declines in enrollment trends across binary gender and age groups. At the undergraduate level, female- and male-identifying students fell at about the same rate of 3.5%. In comparison to last year, men experienced a steeper decline
than women by (6% to 1%). The slip in overall undergraduate enrollment between genders is also apparent in most STEM programs, with the rate of decline steeper for men than women.
Regarding age, undergraduate enrollment for students aged 25-29 declined drastically compared to students aged 18-20.
Despite the alarming declines in enrollment rates reported across institutional types, degree programs, and student populations, there is a glimmer of improvement in undergraduate enrollment in six states: Hawaii, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina,
Utah, and Vermont. In addition, enrollment trends are either improving or holding up across several regions in the United States, including the North, South, and Midwest.
Across the nation, the decline in enrollment rates is dismaying. Still, it is vital to remain mindful of the context we have and continue to navigate throughout this unprecedented disruption to our realities. These early data points should serve as a
resource for understanding the larger landscape that stakeholders continue to mitigate while supporting students through these challenging times.
Looking ahead, stakeholders should remain committed to building out comprehensive postsecondary efforts while holding grace for one another as we continue to serve this next generation of scholars in post-pandemic America.
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