By Alex Nock, Principal, Penn Hill Group, and Catherine Brown, Senior Director of Policy & Advocacy, NCAN
Reading time: Five minutes
The November midterm elections surprised many pundits. Let's dig into the results and their implications for higher education policy.
Federal Elections and Their Implications
The race to control Congress lasted well past election day and ended in a narrower margin than most pundits predicted. Ultimately, Republicans won 221 races to claim a House majority by a slim three votes. Democrats retained controlled of the U.S. Senate and expanded their majority to 51-49,
with every incumbent winning re-election and John Fetterman from Pennsylvania flipping a seat from Republican to Democrat. As a result, divided government will be the theme over the next two years.
Leadership Roles and Priorities
Congressman Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is expected to become Speaker of the House, though he must be elected by the full House of Representatives. Democrats have selected Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) as the incoming House Democratic leader and Katherine Clark (D-MA) as the minority whip. Jeffries will be the first Black Democratic leader in U.S. history.
At the committee level, where much of federal higher education policy gets determined, change was coming regardless of the outcome of November's election. It was long rumored that current Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee Chair
Patty Murray (D-WA) would move over to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee in the next Congress. Senator Murray made this move official a few weeks ago, opening the door to Senator
Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who will become Chairman of HELP in the new Congress (while an independent, Senator Sanders caucuses with the Democrats). Senator Sanders is best known in higher education circles for being one of the original
architects of a tuition free four-year public college proposal.
He said in a brief statement that he wants to "increase access to higher education." Senator
Murray’s move to the top slot on the Appropriations Committee may put her in an even better position to drive higher education spending, such as increases to the maximum Pell Grant.
On the GOP side, Senator Richard Burr (R-NC), the current ranking member of the Senate HELP Committee is retiring, which means that Senator
Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will take over as the top Republican member of the HELP Committee.
Senator Cassidy is the lead sponsor of the College Transparency Act, which NCAN supports. This legislation is aimed at promoting greater transparency about student outcomes in postsecondary institutions. He has also introduced legislation to improve mental health counseling on college campuses and to prohibit the Biden Administration from cancelling student loans.
With the GOP takeover of the House, the top roles on the House Education and Labor Committee will likely switch. Current Chair Bobby Scott (D-VA) will become the ranking member and current ranking Member Virginia Foxx (R-NC) will probably become Chair. She needs a waiver of internal GOP conference rules to serve another term as the top committee Republican and we may see as soon as this week whether this waiver is approved.
Foxx has signaled that reauthorizing the Higher Education Act is one of her top priorities in the new Congress though a divided Congress and an Administration of the other party will likely make it hard for her to enact some of her priorities, such as
the recently-introduced REAL Reforms Act. This bill limits loan forgiveness options, expands Pell Grants to short-term, for-profit training
programs, and more. She has also introduced legislation to require colleges to make costs more
transparent. Even if Foxx isn’t successful in moving a higher education reauthorization to President Biden’s desk, expect the GOP-controlled House committee to conduct oversight on the administration’s stewardship of federal student aid programs,
including the recently-announced loan forgiveness initiative that is presently being considered by the Supreme Court.
Lame-Duck Action
Before the new Congress is sworn in, the current one must complete its business, including whether and how to finalize current fiscal year federal spending. Federal spending expires on December 16th and congressional appropriations leaders are working on
a plan. They will either pass an omnibus appropriations bill (all of the 12 appropriations bills including the one that funds higher education spending, rolled into one) or pass a Continuing Resolution to maintain current spending levels for a short
time. An omnibus requires 60 votes in the Senate, so their must be wide bi-partisan agreement in order to come to a deal.
There has been public speculation about whether this bill can include a permanent fix for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)
program, an expansion of Pell to short term courses, the College Transparency Act, and other legislation.At this
point, the inclusion of at least these two items seem doubtful, as appropriators are rushing to assemble a bill and act on it before the end of the year.
If Congress can't pass a spending bill next Friday, they will have to extend the current continuing resolution into early 2023 and leave the new Congress to finalize current fiscal year spending. Especially critical here will be any funding increase in
the maximum size of the Pell Grant and sufficient spending authority for Federal Student Aid as they seek to finalize the new simplified FAFSA for next October. Advocates, including NCAN, have been pushing for a $500 increase in the maximum Pell Grant.
State Elections and Implications
The November elections didn’t just impact federal higher education policy.In Arizona, voters narrowly approved Proposition 308, which allows non-citizens to pay in-state tuition if they attended K-12 school in Arizona
for at least two years and graduated from a high school in the state.Arizona now joins 22 other states and Washington, DC in allowing some individuals without documentation to pay in-state tuition.
The November elections did not change who's in the White House, but they may still impact President Biden’s higher education agenda. Until this point, the Administration's agenda has largely consisted of regulatory actions, such as expanding Pell Grants to incarcerated individuals,
improving public service loan forgiveness, and expanding loan forgiveness broadly, and pushing for legislation that needs Democratic control of both houses of Congress to pass.
While the Administration may need to recalibrate their legislative agenda for a divided Congress, expect them to continue to look for regulatory and other executive branch actions that do not require the involvement of Congress. Top of this agenda is
whether and how the administration will be able to finally execute on its loan forgiveness initiative granting up to $20,000 in student loan debt relief. As mentioned previously, the Supreme Court will be reviewing the legality of this initiative
this spring.
NCAN will continue to monitor committee priorities, membership, and how the Biden administration responds to new Congress.As new information and opportunities present themselves, we will keep you updated.
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