By Bill DeBaun, Senior Director, Data and Strategic Initiatives
Reading time: Three minutes
The high school class of 2023 enrolled in college at about the same rate as the class of 2022 across various high school income, demographic, and locale categories, and six-year completion rates for the class of 2017 were also largely static relative
to 2022. These are two of the big takeaways from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s (NSCRC) latest High School Benchmarks report, the 12th in a series
and the best resource available for understanding high school students’ postsecondary outcomes at the national level.
The report’s first fall enrollment data continue to show significant gaps based on high school income and demographics. Students from higher-income high schools enrolled at a rate of 65.1% compared to 52.3% for low-income
high schools; these categories are determined based on being on either side of 50% free- or reduced-price lunch eligibility. High-poverty high schools, where 75% or more of students are FRPL-eligible, had a 50.5% enrolment rate compared to 73.3% in
low-poverty high schools with less than 25% FRPL eligibility.
Equally troubling, there was a 10-percentage-point gap between schools enrolling 40% or more Black or Latino/a students and those with less than 40% of these students.
Using the sample size by high school locale (urban, suburban, rural) and the percentage outcomes, it’s possible to calculate a weighted average for metrics in the report. Overall, I estimate that 60.2% of the class of 2023 had a “first fall” postsecondary
enrollment following high school graduation.
More troubling is that just 42.3% of the class of 2017 completed within six years of walking across the graduation stage. This rate isn’t contingent on having ever enrolled; in other words, an estimated 42.3% of all high school graduates
completed an associate’s, bachelor’s, or advanced degree within six years of their graduation date.
Another deeply concerning finding from the report is that class of 2022 graduates’ postsecondary enrollments within one year of leaving high school increased across most categories relative to the class of 2021. That’s encouraging for the class of 2022
but continues to show the lagging and pernicious impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the class of 2021. Given the still-delayed matriculation this class is experiencing, it’s very possible there will be an educational attainment “donut hole” for these
graduates.
Back to the class of 2023’s outcomes, in some ways the mostly static enrollment outcomes aren’t particularly surprising given what we know about Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion as a bellwether. The chart below shows the June
30 FAFSA completion rate for high school seniors, the year-over-year percent change in FAFSA completion, and the immediate college enrollment rate calculated from the NSCRC’s High School Benchmarks report series. FAFSA and enrollment tend to move
together in terms of direction and magnitude, and the class of 2023 follows that pattern.
Unfortunately, the 11.6% decline In June 30 FAFSA completions for the class of 2024 portends a significant enrollment drop in the next High School Benchmarks report.
The High School Benchmarks series, as noted, provides a lot of valuable data points. Others valuable for bookmarking include:
Immediate, first year, and first two year enrollment
First-to-second year persistence
Six-year completion rates
These are disaggregated by:
High school characteristics: poverty and income levels, minority concentration, and locale
College characteristics: four-year vs. two-year, in-state vs. out-of-state, public vs. private
The next NSCRC report to look out for will be released in October. It will offer preliminary data on changes in fall term enrollment relative to last year and offer some insight into the effects of the 2024-25 FAFSA cycle on students’ matriculation patterns.
Email to a Friend
