By Bill DeBaun, Senior Director, Data and Strategic Initiatives
Reading time: Seven minutes
At the time of this writing, the National College Attainment Network's (NCAN) FAFSA Tracker is updated with class of 2025 high school seniors’ Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion
outcomes through April 11. The national FAFSA completion rate is an estimated 45.8%, compared to 29.2% for the class of 2024 a year ago. That increase stems from seniors having completed 60.6% more FAFSAs through
April 11 than last year’s class.
As we head into May and look ahead toward the June 30 milestone, it’s a good time to look at some notable developments. Here’s eight of them.
1. It’s a big bounce back
Last year’s FAFSA challenges were well-documented. The bounceback is here. Seeing 60% year-over-year increases in the number of FAFSAs completed is eye-popping and unprecedented in the Tracker’s 8-year run. It underscores how depressed FAFSA completions
were as of mid-April last year. For context, when we first got FAFSA completion data for the class of 2024 last year on March 29, the FAFSA completion rate was 27.7%. Through the same date this year, the class of 2025 had a 43% FAFSA completion rate,
which was a mark that we didn’t hit last year until May 24. We’re still trailing pre-pandemic levels of FAFSA completion (roughly 54% of seniors completing), but a concerted effort could put us back in that range.
2. Week-to-week or date-to-date?
When we first got FAFSA completion data this year, date-to-date comparisons weren’t possible, so NCAN compared the classes of 2023,
2024, and 2025 through the same week numbers of their respective cycles. Through the 16th week of the cycle, the class of 2025 had 13% more completions than the class of 2024 and 19.6% more than the class of 2023. Keep in mind these
reflected three different dates; January 20 for the class of 2023, April 19 for the class of 2024, and March 21 for this year’s class. Starting with data through March 28, date-to-date comparisons became possible, and that’s what is reflected on our
Tracker now.
3. Stronger recoveries for low-income and high-minority high schools
NCAN receives high school-level FAFSA completion data, so it’s impossible for us to look at FAFSA completion by student demographics, but we can proxy these by looking at the characteristics of the high schools enrolling these students. Through March
11, higher-income high schools, whose enrollment includes less than 50% students eligible for free- or reduced-price lunch (FRPL) have an estimated 48.6% FAFSA completion rate compared to 42.4% for high schools enrolling 50+% FRPL-eligible students.
The FAFSA completion disparity is smaller for high schools enrolling less than 40% Black or Latino/a students (44.7% FAFSA completion rate) and those enrolling 40+% of students from these groups (43.9%). Notably, both low-income and high-minority
high schools are seeing much stronger bounce backs as both categories are outpacing last year’s FAFSA completion totals by greater than 75%.
4. The bending of the FAFSA curve continues
Last November, The Century Foundation’s Peter Granville and I wrote about the bending of the FAFSA curve were observing according to
household and community income levels. The “bend” comes from middle-income communities, which are seeing their FAFSA completion rates drop relative to the lowest- and highest-income communities.
We wrote, “The fact that the lowest-income communities have seen stronger FAFSA completion resiliency in the face of disruptions is an undisputed win—they will need aid the most to attend college, and the FAFSA form is the primary way to get it. But on
the other hand, the data also tell a story of middle-income communities tracking downward.”
Through April 11, that bending from the middle class continues. The chart below shows public high schools’ FAFSA completion rates by their decile (10% grouping) of FRPL eligibility rates. High schools in the 10% FRPL eligibility band (highest-income high
schools) have an estimated FAFSA completion rate of 54.2%. High schools in the 90% band (lowest-income high schools) have a 51.7% FAFSA completion rate. But high schools in the 40%, 50%, and 60% bands have FAFSA completion rates ranging from 37% to
45%.
This is a trend that continues to warrant attention from practitioners and policymakers.
5. California’s priority deadline had a huge impact in-state and nationally
Until about mid-February, California’s FAFSA performance was running well behind the national figure. And not by a little bit. On February 7, California’s year-over-year percent change in submissions through the same week of the cycle was -10.9%, and
California ranked 50th among states by this metric. On the same date, California ranked 28th by percent of seniors completing.
California, as you might have heard, is a big state with a lot of students, so an underperformance of this size would have reverberations in the national figures.
However, from mid-February on it was like a switch got flipped. The priority deadline for FAFSA completion in California is April 2, and the leadup to that date showed a steep increase in year-over-year percent change, the percent of seniors completing,
and California’s ranks for both. Through April 11, California now ranks 4th nationally by percent of seniors completing and 6th by year-over-year percent change in completions.
Phew.
6. Universal FAFSA policies showing positive impacts for new implementers
Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma are all implementing universal FAFSA policies for the first time this academic year. NCAN has written a lot about universal FAFSA
policies, so I won’t unpack all of that here. Let’s just look at how these four states are faring.
Oklahoma has nearly doubled (+98.7%) its number of FAFSA completions through April 11 this year, good for first in the country, but the state still only ranks 35th by percent of seniors completing; after 52 weeks of the 2024-25 cycle, Oklahoma
ranked 40th. Nebraska’s FAFSA completions are up about 65%, vaulting the state into a 9th place ranking by percent of seniors completing (up from 37th through 52 weeks of last cycle).
New Jersey and New York were already 9th and 11th by percent of seniors completing last cycle, so hypothetically there’s probably a limit to how much a universal FAFSA could provide a further boost. Well, this is why we test hypotheses,
I guess. Both states have improved their positions in the percent of seniors completing ranking. New Jersey has risen all the way up to 2nd while New York currently sits 7th. Both states have year-over-year completion increases
greater than 60%, but so do 20 other states given this year’s rising tide.
Zooming out on universal FAFSA in general, six of the top 10 states by percent of seniors completing now have universal FAFSA policies, and Connecticut, sitting 8th, will implement one.
Prior to this cycle, we could look at the effect of adding a universal FAFSA policy on FAFSA completion, but this cycle we get a chance to see the effect of removing them. Both Louisiana and New Hampshire repealed their policies this year.
Louisiana, of course, kicked off the trend for the class of 2018 and repealed its policy after an 8-year run. By contrast, New Hampshire removed theirs after just one graduating class.
Louisiana ranks last by year-over-year percent change in completions, despite that change being an increase of 29% (again, rising tide this year). Before the switch to date-to-date comparisons, Louisiana was running a 13% decline in a week-to-week comparison.
This performance has moved Louisiana from its typical 1st or 2nd place ranking by percent of seniors completing all the way down to 28th. For its part, New Hampshire has the second-lowest increase in year-over-year
change in FAFSA completion, but has only slipped a few ranks by percent of seniors completing.
8. West Virginia shows the power of a coordinated approach
One notable riser up the percent of seniors completing ranking is West Virginia. When NCAN stopped tracking the class of 2024 last December, West Virginia ranked 22nd, but now the state’s class of 2025 ranks 12th by the same metric
through April 11. It’s a big (and impressive) jump, although the state has room to grow to get back to FAFSA completion rates observed in pre-pandemic classes.
Reaching out to our partners at the West Virginia Higher Education Policy Commission (WVHEPC), it’s clear that there are a lot of thoughtful, coordinated efforts to which we could point that would explain the impressive improvement to FAFSA completion
performance. More on that in a future post, but for now time to give West Virginia its flowers.
NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker will continue to update weekly (usually on Fridays) and monitor the trends in the class of 2025’s performance. We’re building great momentum nationally, and in many states, so let’s collectively keep that up between now and when students
cross commencement stages and even beyond.
Have questions about this post, the FAFSA Tracker, or anything else? My inbox is open at debaunb@ncan.org. Thanks for reading!
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