By Bill DeBaun, Senior Director of Data and Strategic Initiatives
Reading time: Two minutes
Undergraduate enrollment declined 1.1% year-over-year
by September 29, according to a “first look” released by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. The drop marks the 3rd consecutive fall semester with declines, dating
back to 2020, although the rate of decline is slowing (and nearing pre-pandemic levels).
Despite strong FAFSA completion growth out of the class of 2022, which saw seniors complete 4.6% more FAFSAs
than the class of 2021, freshman postsecondary enrollment was still down 1.5%. This varied across sectors, with four-year public institutions (-2.4%) and private non-profit institutions (-3.1%) taking losses while the community college sector edged
up 0.9%.
It’s still possible that the class of 2022 High School Benchmarks report will show gains for that cohort when it’s released. The current
NSCRC data for the fall 2022 term show a 0.5% gain for 18- to 20-year-old students. Unfortunately, it may be a while until we have information specifically on the high school class of 2022’s enrollment outcomes, but the High School Benchmarks report
for the class of 2021 should be released this December.
The enrollment increase realized by community colleges represented some long-awaited relief after substantial declines in recent semesters. Spring 2021 saw the two-year public
sector decline 9.5% year-over-year. Fall 2022 saw a drop of just -0.4% year-over-year due to substantial increases in dual-enrolled high school students (+11.5%) and students in the 18-20 age range (+1.4%).
Conversely, four-year
institutions saw a 1.6% decline in enrollment overall, private nonprofits dropped by 0.9%, and private for-profits declined by 2.5%, which brings that sector’s losses from fall 2020 to fall 2022 to 6.8%.
Considering outcomes by race
and ethnicity, a positive from the report is that Latinx undergraduate enrollment increased by 1.2% year-over-year, and it was especially strong at four-year private, nonprofit institutions (+1.8%) and community colleges (+2.9%). Unfortunately, Black
students saw a 1.6% decline overall while White students’ enrollment decreased by 3.6%.
The release notably includes state-level data that is filterable by total, undergraduate, and graduate enrollment, which makes it a great
resource for practitioners and policymakers alike.
As a reminder, the NSC's StudentTracker suite of services allows districts, schools, and other education organizations to access their students' own postsecondary enrollment, persistence, and completion outcomes.
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