By Bill DeBaun, Senior Director, Data and Strategic Initiatives
Reading time: 10 minutes
Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) submissions for the class of 2024 were down about 57% compared to last year’s seniors, and the national FAFSA submission rate stands at just 16% through January 26. This slow start aligns with the experiences
of students, families, and practitioners across the country who have struggled over the past month with the 2024-25 cycle FAFSA’s delayed launch and hiccupping rollout. This cycle's start has been disproportionately sluggish for high schools serving students of color and students from limited incomes.
Notably, the data on the FAFSA Tracker referenced in this blog post is about FAFSA submissions. Although the Tracker normally considers completions, because FAFSAs won’t be processed until mid-March, submissions offer the best insight into the
cycle’s progress. Submissions always exceed completions because they include FAFSAs with errors in need of correction. When completion data becomes available later this cycle, NCAN will switch the Tracker over to reflect those data.
The new data comes from the National College Attainment Network's FAFSA Tracker, which returns for its seventh year of visualizing FAFSA data at the national, state, and local levels. The Tracker uses
the Federal Student Aid Data Center’s high school-level data on submissions and completions, which is updated each Friday. As
of just a few weeks ago, NCAN did not expect these data to be available until mid-April, and we are grateful to Federal
Student Aid for accelerating their release given the importance of these data for practitioners, policymakers, and the public.
The Tracker currently reflects four weeks of data, starting on January 5 and proceeding weekly through January 26. Over that month, the year-over-year percent change climbed from -91% to about -57%. Every state in the nation is currently in the red relative
to last year with New Hampshire (-45.4%) leading the FAFSA Tracker’s percent change ranking. Eleven states and Puerto Rico have year-over-year percent changes at -60% or below.
The figures above are a byproduct of the fact that January 26 is the fourth week of the 2024-25 cycle but would be somewhere around the 17th week in a cycle starting on October 1, on which the FAFSA has opened since the 2018-19 cycle (class of 2018 seniors).
Seniors have had less time to submit the FAFSA, and so fewer of them have.
One silver lining is that relative to week four of last cycle (through October 28, 2022), class of 2024 seniors are ahead of the pace by about 3%. In future cycles that resume an October 1 opening date, we expect to see increases in submissions and completions
and a realization of the full benefits of the Better FAFSA.
“This data will help us track our progress as our whole field pulls together to get students the financial aid they need to pursue a postsecondary education,” says NCAN CEO Kim Cook. “Our first look shows that the increasingly compressed timeline and
known issues in this rollout could have real consequences for FAFSA completion. NCAN is here to support members, school counselors and financial aid professionals with the heavy lifting ahead to deliver on the Better FAFSA’s promise.”
The percentage of seniors submitting metric also reflects the relatively short window the class of 2024 has had with the FAFSA. Each of the past six cycles has been at or above 35% of seniors submitting a FAFSA by the end of January, which doubles up
the 16.3% at which the class of 2024 currently sits. By state, Connecticut (25.4%), Washington, DC (24.7%), Massachusetts (23.4%), New Jersey (23%), and Illinois (22.5%) comprise the top of the percentage of students submitting leaderboard. Notably,
New Hampshire, which is implementing universal FAFSA this year, is 6th at 21.1% and, as noted above, also has the smallest decline in FAFSA submissions year-over-year.
Time is a crucial factor and theme in the 2024-25 cycle. The FAFSA’s delayed opening doesn’t mean the 2024-25 admissions cycle shifts commensurately. Institutions won’t receive the data they need to create award letters until at least mid-March, which
likely pushes the delivery of those award letters for seniors into April. May 1 is National College Decision Day, which leaves students a much shorter period to consider their postsecondary pathways. States have started moving back their state financial
aid deadlines, and last week NCAN joined nine other organizations in calling for postsecondary institutions to push back their May 1 deadlines.
Back to the data. One new feature in this year’s Tracker is estimated percentages of seniors submitting the FAFSA by high school categories (previously, the percentage of seniors completing only appeared at the national and state levels). Although the
12th grade enrollment data for these figures are currently from the class of 2021 due to lags in the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)’ Elementary and Secondary Information System (ELSI) data availability, they still offer a rough approximation
of the percentage of seniors submitting or completing a FAFSA.
Unfortunately, this new feature shows that low-income high schools trail their higher-income peers in FAFSA submission by seven percentage points. (Low-income high schools have 50+% of students eligible for free- or reduced-price lunch). Similarly, high-minority
high schools, where 40+% of students are Black or Latino/a, have an estimated FAFSA submission rate of 14% compared to their peer high schools with smaller percentages of Black and Latino/a students that have submission rates of nearly 20%.
The struggles with the 2024-25 cycle come at a time when FAFSA completion has been building momentum coming out of the pandemic. After FAFSA completions fell substantially for the classes of 2020 and 2021, they experienced bounce backs for the classes
of 2022 (+4.8% completions by June 30) and 2023 (+3.7%). Notably, FAFSA completion rates nationally have not returned to pre-pandemic rates last seen by the class of 2019.
The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s High School Benchmarks report showed enrollment gains for the high school class of 2022. When the next edition is released, it’s likely
the class of 2023 will build on that growth, given the correlation between FAFSA completion and immediate enrollment. The alarm bells sounding about the class of 2024 are so loud because they threaten to disrupt this positive momentum. The stakes
are high: students’ postsecondary plans are on the line, and some students will, unfortunately, likely pursue other paths if they cannot get the financial aid they need to go to college.
Substantial challenges face students, families, and our field for the 2024-25 FAFSA cycle. Both NCAN members’ experiences and now the data bear this out. A hallmark of NCAN’s data approach is the belief that we can’t be afraid to look, even when we’re
afraid of or upset about what the data says. This is certainly the case here. The FAFSA Tracker will continue to be a frequently updated resource for the field this cycle and beyond. Stay tuned to what will be a developing story throughout this spring
and beyond.
Have questions, comments, or concerns about the FAFSA Tracker, FAFSA submission and completion data, or anything else? Reach out to Bill DeBaun at debaunb@ncan.org.
What Can and Should I Be Doing?
There are two pathways to pursue in the “What’s Next?” category. One is preparation, the other is policy and advocacy.
Continue to monitor NCAN's Better FAFSA resources page for the latest news,
updates, and training material. NCAN is offering free training webinars, available to members and non-members alike given this cycle’s importance.
College Access and Success Professionals: To accelerate FAFSA completion rates, college access and success programs should continue to support students by providing FAFSA completion workshops and personalized help, with a special focus
on students from marginalized communities. Those from mixed status families are facing a heightened challenge completing the FAFSA because people who do not have social security
numbers (SSNs) are not able to access the form.
State Officials: States have many options for assisting students and families throughout spring. States should:
Postpone state financial aid deadlines until at least April 1, 2024, to ensure that all students have ample time to complete the form. Six states currently have financial
aid deadlines prior to April 1. Even priority deadlines, which are different than a hard cutoff, can create roadblocks for students by discouraging students who are struggling to complete the form.
Publicize deadline changes by posting them on the state’s website, issuing a press release, and sending an email to college access and success programs, college counselors, local educational agencies, and postsecondary institutions.
Reexamine first-come,
first-serve policies, which put students in complex circumstances, those from mixed status families, or those who simply encounter technical issues when completing the FAFSA through no fault of their own at a real disadvantage. States
should delay their financial aid deadlines and promise that all students that complete the FAFSA by the deadline will receive state financial aid. If needed, state officials should seek a supplemental appropriation to cover the cost.
Provide enhanced and targeted support to local communities by sharing regular updates on FAFSA submission data by school with the relevant administrators and developing and executing targeted strategies to address FAFSA completion
gaps where they exist. States may need to deploy state financial aid outreach specialists or provide funding for school districts and local communities to use for surge capacity in areas that are far behind previous years in FAFSA completion rates.
Institutions of Higher Education: Colleges and universities play a critical role in ensuring that all students can receive the federal financial aid to which they are entitled. They should:
Push institutional financial aid deadlines until at least March 1, 2024. By delaying institutional deadlines until April, colleges can give students as much latitude as possible when completing the FAFSA.
Not disadvantage students who apply later in the cycle. By developing a process for ensuring that students who apply later in the financial aid cycle have the same chance of receiving a generous financial aid package as those who
apply earlier, schools can help ensure that students from marginalized communities are able to pursue a postsecondary education.
Minimize school-selected verification. When schools choose to verify an item other than those Federal Student Aid selects, they may delay disbursing Title IV aid to students until the verification process is completed if the school-selected
item might affect the student’s Title IV eligibility, such as a question about dependency status. NCAN urges schools to take steps to minimize school-selected verification and to go above and beyond to ensure that disbursement of Title IV aid
is not delayed because of institution-level verification decisions.
Be as flexible as possible. Many students and parents are encountering issues while trying to complete the FAFSA. Schools should be as responsive and flexible as possible to help ease the stress that this situation is causing for
families.
FAFSA Tracker Notes
At present the FAFSA Tracker offers eight tabs, each with a different way of looking at these data:
The Home Page offers national-level data on percent change and percent of seniors submitting as well as state-level rankings by these two metrics.
State Profile includes state-level data on percent change and percent of seniors submitting as well as state-level year-over-year change and percent of seniors submitting estimates by high school categories (income, percent of students
of color, and geography). This page also includes city, district, and school level year-over-year change. Further into the cycle, we will expand the profile to include scatterplots and other visualizations that explore in-state FAFSA completion
trends.
US/States by Cycle harnesses NCAN’s longitudinal data on FAFSA submission and completion and offers line charts on year-over-year percent change and the estimated percent of seniors submitting for the high school classes of 2018-2024.
This page includes national charts and a set of state charts that are adjustable by state.
The Line Chart by Cycle is a new visualization for the 2024-25 cycle. Use the date slider to see state-level FAFSA completion rates through a given date span across the classes of 2018-2024. This visualization is similar to US/States
by Cycle but more customizable.
School Submissions by Cycle includes the number of FAFSA submissions for a given high school (filterable by state and school district) for the high school classes of 2023 and 2024 by date of the current cycle. If your high school
does not appear, try setting district to “Null” and try again. Please email debaunb@ncan.org if you see something amiss, and we will work to fix the district-school connection moving forward. Note that all private high schools should set district
to “Null.”
Week-to-Week State Ranks plots states’ ranks by the Tracker’s two key metrics across the current cycle.
State Scatterplot plots states’ year-over-year percent change by their percent of seniors submitting to show both absolute and relative performance compared to other states. States’ circles are weighted by the number of their submissions.
City, District, School Ranks displays city, district, and school level year-over-year change and is filterable by state.
Email to a Friend
