It often feels as though students, families, and those aiding in Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion have been jumping from crisis to crisis since the 2024-25 form launched nearly three months late.
Had the rollout been smooth, students would have still had less time to complete the FAFSA. Unfortunately, it was anything but – especially
for applicants from mixed-status families. Although these problems have largely been addressed, some contributors continue to face challenges.
The delayed launch was compounded by later adjustments as required by federal legislation. In January, the US Department of Education (ED) updated the supporting data tables used in the Student Aid Index (SAI) calculation to account for inflation, which meant FAFSA applicant data didn’t start flowing to institutions until mid-March – nearly six weeks later than expected.
Even after ISIRs were flowing, a calculation error related to dependent students with assets meant some ISIRs sent prior to March 21 have to be reprocessed,
adding additional delays.
As a result, many institutions may not be able to provide financial aid award letters until well after their decision deadlines, and accepted students are being told not to expect letters until May or even June. Prospective students are being forced to decide where (if at all) to attend school in the fall before knowing how much it will cost them.
The bumpy rollout, compressed timeline, and lack of clarity around financial aid have all combined to form a perfect, potentially catastrophic storm for this year’s high school seniors, especially those who rely on financial aid to attend college.
As of March 22, FAFSA submission numbers stood at just 33.7% for the high school class of 2024, down 30.7% compared to this time last year, according to the National College Attainment Network’s (NCAN) FAFSA Tracker. If these numbers hold true, we estimate the Class of 2024 could submit between 300,000-500,000 fewer FAFSAs than their 2023 peers. This would likely mean tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of high
school seniors choosing not to pursue a postsecondary education this fall.
Put bluntly, we will be facing a major enrollment crisis if we don’t act now.
Institutions could see a drop in attendance rates, leading to a dip in revenues and potential budget crises. Fewer students from the Class of 2024 could choose to pursue a postsecondary degree, meaning their long-term earnings outlook will be lesser than
their college-going peers. Most affected will be students of color, those from low-income backgrounds, and first-generation college-goers, which would exacerbate already-existing inequities. In short, a decline in FAFSA submissions this year will
have grave consequences for years, if not decades, to come.
Fortunately, it’s not too late to act. There’s still time to close the FAFSA submission gap if we act now. Providing FAFSA completion support through the spring and summer will be key. For their part, The White House and ED have announced a FAFSA Week of Action April 15-19 to encourage students to complete the form. This year is not yet lost for FAFSA, but we’re fast approaching the point of no return.
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