Seniors’ FAFSAs Drop 11.6% Through June, Highlighting Need for Summer Supports

By Bill DeBaun, Senior Director, Data and Strategic Initiatives

Reading time: Five minutes

The class of 2024’s Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completions declined 11.6% year-over-year through June 28, which represents a decline of just over 250,000 fewer seniors who completed a FAFSA this year than last.

The national FAFSA completion rate for the high school class of 2024 stood at approximately 46% compared to about 53.2% for the class of 2023 through the same date last year, a gap of 7.2 percentage points. For context, between the classes of 2019 and 2021, the national FAFSA completion rate dropped 3.9 percentage points.

"The unprecedented numbers we are observing in this class's data make it clear that we can't afford to have another delayed FAFSA," said National College Attainment Network (NCAN) CEO Kim Cook. "We know that FAFSA opens the door to college; we need that door ready to walk through on-time and without complication."

All of this data comes from NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker, which examines high school seniors’ FAFSA completion rates at the national, state, and local levels using data published by Federal Student Aid every Friday. June 30 is a date that looms large on NCAN’s calendar each year. It’s the date by which we usually compare FAFSA cycles to each other and measure national progress on this key college access milestone. Given this cycle’s unique context, measuring progress beyond June 30 and well into the summer will be critical as students continue to complete FAFSAs in pursuit of financial aid.

Although it’s true that the FAFSA completion gap between the classes of 2023 and 2024 has narrowed as the cycle went on, progress started to stall halfway through May. Following a surge between April 17 and May 10 where it looked like things might turn around, momentum petered out as states’ priority deadlines passed and high school graduations approached. Since May 17, the class of 2024 has gained less than a percentage point per week, resulting in a worryingly flat trajectory year-over-year.

No state in the nation finished with a positive year-over-year percent change. Indiana came closest and sits at -0.9% through June 28, no doubt bolstered by the state’s implementation of its universal FAFSA policy this academic year, which seems to have helped insulate the Hoosier State from some of the even more serious declines observed elsewhere. Indiana currently ranks 22^nd by percent of seniors completing a FAFSA; the state ranked 39^th by this measure through the end of last September for the class of 2023.

Just four other states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had year-over-year FAFSA completion declines than 10%.

At the top of the FAFSA leaderboard for the percentage of seniors completing a FAFSA, there are some familiar names. Through June 28, Tennessee (58.5%) and Louisiana (56.6%) continue their years-long two-step, although whether this will be the last year for this trend remains to be seen given Louisiana’s repeal of its universal FAFSA policy starting next year. Illinois (55.5%), Washington, DC (55.3%), and Puerto Rico (54.7%) round out the top five with Texas, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island following close behind. Although Puerto Rico has not been ranked in previous years, recent access to public and private school enrollment estimates allows for their inclusion here.

Unfortunately, both the data and the literature observe that first-generation students, students from low-income backgrounds, and students of color are less likely to complete the FAFSA and to have access to the support they need to do so.

NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker looks at FAFSA completion data by different high school categories to understand completion trends between, for example, low-income and higher-income high schools, whose populations are on either side of 50% free- and reduced-price lunch eligibility. Through June 28, higher-income public high schools have an estimated FAFSA completion rate of 50% compared to 44.9% for low-income high schools; these higher-income schools also had a smaller decline in FAFSA completions year-over-year. The Tracker documents similar trends in schools enrolling fewer than 40% Black or Latino/a students and those enrolling 40% or more of these students.

Based on FAFSA completion data for the high school class of 2024, we are very concerned that the immediate college enrollment rate might drop this fall. FAFSA completion is strongly correlated with college enrollment, especially for students from families with low incomes. The table below going back to the class of 2018 shows that the class of 2024’s 11.6% year-over-year FAFSA completion decline is out of proportion with previous classes’ magnitude of gains or losses. (Note that the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s High School Benchmarks report for the class of 2023 hasn’t been released yet and will arrive this fall.)

Based on what we hear from NCAN member organizations, however, we are excited that thousands of professionals across the country are doing their utmost right now to prevent an enrollment drop. It is not too late for students to do the FAFSA and find a college to enroll in this fall.

Almost 200 organizations have received funds from the federal FAFSA Student Support Strategy to hire more staff to provide FAFSA completion assistance and conduct outreach campaigns throughout the summer. As just one of those many efforts, NCAN is leading the first large paid digital advertising campaign to Pell Grant-eligible young people encouraging them to #DoTheFAFSA, and we invite everyone to spread the word using our free social media toolkit.

NCAN is hoping to see a summer surge of a magnitude unlike previous years’ that would represent more students completing the FAFSA. We will continue to monitor that data over the summer and provide progress reports. NCAN is also eyeing the opening of the 2025-26 FAFSA and has called four fixes that ED must make by October 1 to make for a smoother process than we have experienced this past cycle.

One thing we know for sure is that college access and success professionals never give up on students, and they will do everything in their power to help a student enroll in college. Thanks to many generous funders and the FAFSA Student Support Strategy, organizations have money to support this work. We don’t know exactly what the fall enrollment results will be following this unprecedented summer FAFSA emergency response, but NCAN members and our partners across the country will leave it all on the field between now and September.

Read More:

• #DoTheFAFSA Campaign Off to a Strong Start
• NCAN Partners with MHEC and SHEEO to Organize First Regional FAFSA Summit in the Midwest
• Four FAFSA Fixes ED Must Make by October 1